"The beauty of concision, you know, saying a couple sentences between
two commercials, the beauty of that is you can only repeat conventional
thoughts. Suppose I go on Nightline, whatever it is, two minutes, and I
say Gaddafi is a terrorist, Khomeini is a murderer etcetera etcetera...I
don't need any evidence, everyone just nods. On the other hand, suppose
you're saying something that isn't just regurgitating conventional
pieties, suppose you say something that's the least bit unexpected or
controversial, people will quite reasonably expect to know what you
mean. If you said that you'd better have a reason, better have some
evidence. You can't give evidence if you're stuck with concision. That's
the genius of this structural constraint." - Noam Chomsky 'Manufacturing Consent"
Quite recently I was reported on Facebook for "Hate Speech". Since it was my first ever report, there was no consequence, otherwise I would have been in Facebook gaol for a period of time and unable to post or make comment. Interestingly there was a 'dispute' button I could press. I did so, and was informed less than four hours later that my post and been reviewed and the decision upheld.
Justice is quick on Facebook, apparently.
Facebook has very clear standards on what it considers 'Hate Speech':
Facebook's Community Standards go into further detail. I'm not complaining about this. Facebook is a private company. They have been repeatedly determined to be a publisher and not a common carrier - making them liable to content. As such it is perfectly just and fair they be allowed to restrict what is and is not content on their site.
The "Community Standards" are reasonable, however for some reason, they take a different position in their Hard Questions section tacitly questioning the 'boundaries' of free speech. In doing so, they contradict their initial position, replacing the initial fairly strict definition of "hate speech" and introduce a new concept of Dangerous Speech and equate hate speech with violence. This is a very disturbing extension. They justify this by claiming that free speech is under academic debate and there "is very important academic work in this area that we follow closely". This completely ignores the fact that the free speech debate dates back to the 5th and 6th centuries and was fully hammered out a couple of centuries ago by eminent English philosophers John Milton (1608–74), John Locke (1632–1704) and in France by Denis Diderot, Baron d'Holbach and Claude Adrien Helvétius. John Stuart Mill
(1806–1873) seminal work On Liberty, published in 1859 became a classic defence of the right to freedom of expression. In her biography of Voltaire, Evelyn Beatrice Hall
coined the following sentence to illustrate Voltaire's beliefs: "I
disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to
say it."
The standard definition of free speech is perhaps most simply defined by Noam Chomsky:
"If you're in favor of freedom of speech, that means you're in favor of freedom of speech precisely for views you despise."
So influential was the work of Locke that it was used as the inspiration for the United States constitution.
The driving force behind the philosophers of the renaissance and their analysis of free speech and freedom of expression was the invention of the printing press. As the "menace" of printing spread, more governments attempted to centralize control. The French Crown repressed printing and the printer Etienne Dolet was burned at the stake in 1546. In 1557 the British Crown thought to stem the flow of seditious and heretical books by chartering the Stationers' Company. The right to print was limited to the members of that guild, and thirty years later the Star Chamber
was chartered to curtail the "greate enormities and abuses" of "dyvers
contentyous and disorderlye persons professinge the arte or mystere of
pryntinge or selling of books." The right to print was restricted to two
universities and to the 21 existing printers in London. Confrontation with authority made printers radical and rebellious, with
800 authors, printers and book dealers being incarcerated in the Bastille in Paris before it was stormed in 1789. (Wikipedia)
Indeed, whenever there is technological change that tends to extend the boundaries of communication, it is opposed by Governments and fascistic elements. The current situation is no different than any other. So called "new" arguments are trotted out relying on the generally ignorance of the previous debates and conclusions. Facebook's musings fit this category as does the Dangerous Speech Project - which is essentially an argument for censorship.
Another complicating factor is the existence of various defamation laws that exist in jurisdictions around the world. No two jurisdictions seem to be able to agree on what is or what isn't defamation, however the basic components involve the competition between a person's right to their reputation not being harmed and the public right to know. Nearly all countries regard defamation (and I'm including libel here) as a civil matter, however in Singapore and Queensland (yep!) it's part of the criminal code. In most cases, absolute truth is NOT a sufficient defence.
However, Facebook can't have it both ways: It's not a common carrier, so it is subject to defamation and other claims. As a private company, it has both a right and a duty to protect itself from both civil and criminal prosecutions arising from hosted content. This gives it a right to take down content that may be damaging or even content it simply doesn't like. The same applies to all social media companies. But don't pretend this has anything to do with free speech. It doesn't. It never did. And also don't pretend you are trying to work out the "limits" of free speech, because there aren't any limits on freedom of expression. There's free speech, and there's censorship. You may like the censorship, but that doesn't make you a free speech advocate.
Since the last Facebook infringement I've received two more. The first one was for 'hate speech' when I ironically quoted "Arbeit Macht Frei" in response to a discussion on limiting free speech. The phrase is German for "Work makes you free" and adorned the gates of Auschwitz.
The warning gave me the option of accepting that I had written hate speech (without any penalty) or appealing. If the appeal failed, then I would be banned for one day.
Since even a casual reading of the context would reveal I hadn't written anything objectionable, I clicked the appeal button. The appeal was instantly denied and I received a one day Facebook ban! Obviously no one had time to actually look at the thread. No human being had actually been involved in the appeal process. It was a sham. The veneer of oversight.
Just recently, I received a third warning: this time for 'bullying and harassment'. No appeal available. No content was provided at all. I don't even know what it was for and received a three day ban. The only thing I can think it was for is that I asked for evidence for a claim that a particular type of nuclear reactor produced waste that lasts for 10,000 years (hint: it doesn't). So apparently, asking for someone to provide evidence for claims made is bullying - depending upon what side of the argument you are on.
And this is where it becomes asymmetric. As soon as you start to split hairs on an issue, you are subject to bias. When only one person is deciding what is and isn't "free speech", this is inevitable. History has shown this. Yet Facebook has chosen to repeat the mistakes of history by introducing its own "star chamber".
Being in Facebook gaol is serious business now. You can't administer or moderate any pages or groups. Your business may suffer. Although Facebook is not legally a common carrier, it may as well be. For a business, being locked out of your business page can be as damaging as having your phone cut off.
What came out of the renaissance was that the best antidote for any 'dangerous' or 'hate' speech was sunlight: Allow those expressing their views to air them freely - and then debate them. Free speech allows you to say whatever you like, but it doesn't protect you from criticism and debate. The consensus was that the only ideas that needed protection were those ideas that could not withstand rigorous scrutiny. This is why free speech is the enemy of the rich and powerful. Not only does the emperor have no clothes, but he will throw you in gaol for stating it.
A growing number of Facebook users are complaining that Facebook and Twitter are exercising their power to block and ban to further a particular political agenda. Both of these scoial media companies seem to be using the concept of 'hate speech' to cover any ideological they find objectionable.
So, this leads us to one of two possible scenarios:
1) They are ignorant of the history surrounding the development of free speech and are blindly repeating past mistakes.
2) They are fully aware of what they are doing and are following fascistic tendencies to suppress ideas they despise.
Occasionally, someone will want something that runs best on Linux to be installed on a Windows server. There are various reasons for this, but usually it comes down to "I'm not comfortable with Linux, I want this to run on Windows". Regardless of the reason, if that's what the customer wants, that's what the customer gets.
Just to be clear this point, I'm referring to a WAMP server (Windows Apache MySQL PHP) as close as possible to a 'standard' LAMP server (Linux Apache MySQL PHP) that you'll get from the repo of your favourite distro.
That being said, the LAMP server you'll get from RHEL/CentOS will be significantly different from the one you get from Ubuntu.
When it comes to running Apache on Windows, for strange reasons, that simple decision makes the world a whole lot more complex. You see in Linux, when you decide to run Apache, pretty much all the decisions of 'how' have been made for you by the distribution you are using. And unless you decide to roll-your-own - which most people don't do AND increasingly this is a bad thing to do - they are the decisions you now deal with.
Under Windows, that's not the case. There are more ways to run Apache under Windows than you can poke a stick it at. (If you want to get pedantic, you can say there are an infinite number of ways, but don't go there). A lot of these methods are excluded by the "why" you are running Apache, we'll look at a few of these.
The default way is to download Apache from Apache.org and go from there. That's a lot of work and leads to a lot of stuff being left out.
However, if you want to run Apache as bog standard as possible, without having to do too much low level work, Apache Lounge is a good way to go and the one I'll be detailing here.
Procedure
Firstly download the binaries from here. Choose the appropriate version (generally 64 bit) and unzip the archive. While you're waiting for it to download, get the Windows c++ runtime redistributable that is appropriate. Apache lounge is written in c++ and requires this in order to run. The Apache Lounge readme and download page will show you which version is necessary - which is currently 2017. Later versions will (may) work, but it's best to get the version the application was written for. Earlier versions will not work.
Apache Lounge is easier to work with than the official Apache distribution. It also 'feels' more flexible. Try both and you'll see what I mean. What I really like is being uncoupled from the "program files" paradigm of Windows. I personally prefer to have both the binaries and the data separate from the C: drive, so that's the assumption we'll be using here.
Next extract the zip files and copy the Apache24 directory structure to D:\apache24. It may be a good idea to change the folder preferences for full visibility including hidden files and showing the filename extension.
As an aside here, it is also a good idea to prep your server to have the following utilities installed and available:
Edit the D:\apache24\conf\httpd.conf file to add/edit lines as follows (in most cases this is done by looking for the near identical line and either editing it or remove the '#':
Define SRVROOT "D:/Apache24" Listen *:80
LoadModule rewrite_module modules/mod_rewrite.so
ServerAdmin <youremailaddress>
ServerName <your servername or localhost>:80
DocumentRoot "D:/webroot"
AllowOverride All
<Directory "D:/webroot">
Check the config file carefully. Work here will pay off later. Change to the bin directory and run the following:
httpd -t
If the configuration is fine, check that ports 80 and 443 are not in use by running:
Most
likely you'll find port 80 in use. The last number is the process ID of
the service tying up the port. Identify the service from the process ID
using Task Manager and disable that service. If the PID is 4, then this
is the system service http.sys and it becomes annoying and potentially a
problem....
Under later versions of Windows Server, some
processes communicate using http via port 80. The purpose of http.sys is
to redirect that data to the appropriate service. You can test this by
using the telnet client to telnet to 127.0.0.1 80 and pressing return
twice. You should get something like the following as output:
What this means is that one or more native windows services are
dependent upon the http.sys service to operate. You have to decide if
you can live without these services. If not, then you need to select a
different port for Apache to use for http traffic or use it for https
only. If this is the case, edit the config file and change the listening
port from 80 to something else (for now). We can remove http and make
the server https only later on.
If you can live without the services, firstly stop the http.sys service using
net stop http
You will get something like the following:
Answer 'y' and stop the services. You can (and should) script this process by taking not of all the services that need to be stopped and explicitly stopping them. You will likely have to do this frequently.
The original MySQL was created by a Finnish/Swedish company, MySQL
AB, founded by David Axmark, Allan Larsson and Michael ”Monty” Widenius.
The first version of MySQL appeared in 1995.
It was initially created for personal usage but in a few years evolved
into a enterprise grade database and it became the worlds most popular
open source relational database software – and it still is. In January
2008, Sun Microsystems bought MySQL for $1 billion. Soon after, Oracle
acquired all of Sun Microsystems after getting approval from the
European Commission in late 2009, which initially stopped the
transaction due to concerns that such a merger would harm the database
markets as MySQL was the main competitor of Oracle’s database product.
Out of distrust in Oracle stewardship of MySQL, the original developers of MySQL forked it and created MariaDB in 2009. As time passed, MariaDB replaced MySQL in many places
https://downloads.mariadb.org/
Current is 10.3.15 stable. Download x64 msi package.
Installation of MySQL
Download MySQL Workbench. Trust me: You need this!
The full installer includes all windows packages and is a 373MB download. The installer is 32 bit but it includes both 32 and 64 bit binaries.
The installer does not permit upgrades between major and minor version
numbers - these are installed as separate server instances - but it will
perform upgrades within a release series eg: 5.7.18 to 5.7.19.
The installer also requires .NET Framework 4.5.2 or later.
Post installation testing of MySQL/MariaDB
The service should start immediately after installation. Check the MySQL service is running.
Check you can login from the command line using the root user and password generated before.
PHP 5.5+ require at least Windows 2008/Vista, or 2008r2, 2012,
2012r2, 2016 or 7, 8, 8.1, 10. Either 32-Bit or 64-bit (aka X86 or X64.
PHP does not run on Windows RT/WOA/ARM).
As of PHP 7.2.0 Windows 2008 and Vista are no longer supported.
PHP requires the Visual C runtime(CRT). Many applications require that so it may already be installed.
So we will be installing 7.3 from https://windows.php.net/download
Which version do I choose?
IIS
If you are using PHP as FastCGI with IIS you should use the Non-Thread Safe (NTS) versions of PHP.
Apache
Please use the Apache builds provided by Apache Lounge.
They provide VC14 and VC15 builds of Apache for x86 and x64.
We use their binaries to build the Apache SAPIs.
With Apache you have to use the Thread Safe (TS) versions of PHP.
VC14 & VC15
More recent versions of PHP are built with VC14 or VC15 (Visual Studio 2015 or 2017 compiler respectively) and
include improvements in performance and stability.
- The VC14 builds require to have the Visual C++ Redistributable for Visual Studio 2015x86 or x64 installed
- The VC15 builds require to have the Visual C++ Redistributable for Visual Studio 2017x64 or x86 installed
TS and NTS
TS refers to multithread capable builds. NTS refers to single thread only builds. Use case for TS binaries involves interaction with
a multithreaded SAPI and PHP loaded as a module into a web server. For NTS binaries the widespread use case is interaction with a web server through
the FastCGI protocol, utilizing no multithreading (but also for example CLI).
What is PGO?
Profile Guided Optimization
is an optimization
feature available in Microsoft's Visual C++ compiler that
allows you to optimize an output file based on profiling data collected
during test runs of the application or module.
PHP 7 provides full 64-bit support. The x64 builds of PHP 7 support native 64-bit integers, LFS, 64-bit memory_limit and much more.
copy to D:\php7
copy php.ini
edit php.ini
Add C:\php to the path environment variable
To ensure Windows can find PHP, you need to change the path
environment variable. Open Settings, type ‘environment variables’ into
the search field and open the result. Select the “Advanced” tab, and
click the “Environment Variables” button.
Scroll down the System variables list and click on “Path” followed by the “Edit” button. Click “Edit text” and add ;C:\php to the end of the Variable value line (remember the semicolon).
edit httpd.conf to add index.php to the DirectoryIndex variable
At the bottom of the file, add the following lines (change the PHP file locations if necessary):
Some extensions use features specific to some Unix
systems and so are not available on Windows. Otherwise, all extensions
are available for Windows.
PEAR
Open a command prompt with administrator privileges. Use curl to download the pear install file into the php7 directory
curl -OL http://pear.php.net/go-pear.phar
If you use a browser to download the file, it renders as text but with binary characters embedded. This will stop the script from working, hence the need to use curl.
set PHP_PEAR_SYSCONF_DIR=D:\php7
php -d phar.require_hash=0 go-pear.phar
You will then be prompted with a few questions. If the defaults don't work, you probably haven't elevated the privileges of the command prompt. If option 12 lists the Windows path, you haven't set the PHP_PEAR_SYSCONF_DIR variable. Editing here doesn't work, which is why you need to set the variable. You will need to enter the path to cli.exe- in our case this is d:\php7.
Note: If any of the directories already exists, you may get a 'permission denied' error for that directory. In which case, delete the directory and run the script again.
The rest of the defaults should be okay, but check them anyway. Once finished, a reg file called PEAR_ENV.reg will be created. Execute that to add the necessary keys to the registry.
Finally, check that PEAR is working using pear version:
Conclusion
Now, hopefully you read all this through before attempting it and are utterly confused by the process. If you, that's great! No go and install Linux and deploy Apache that way. Trust me! It's much easier and safer. Plus when you get into trouble and need to troubleshooting, pretty much any article you'll find will assume you are using Linux.
For quite some time now, my preferred desktop OS has been Ubuntu. I made the switch from Fedora after a bad experience with graphics drivers between Core 5 & 6 and decided that Fedora was just a little too cutting edge for me. This was around when I had been playing around with Ubuntu for client desktops and warming to with each new version. For me, the transition to a Debian base system was uncomfortable and I avoided it for a while. The crunch came in early 2007 when I received a Sony Vaio VGN series "hip-top" computer. At the time it was pretty stunning and Sony were pushing them hard - which is probably why they were giving them away to guys like me: so that we would show them off to our clients. In the end, tablets killed off this technology avenue.
Sony Vaio VGN series
I was pretty impressed with the VGN, mainly because it was loaded with peripherals and came with a great docking station. Of course, the first task was to give Windows the flick and install Linux.
With Fedora, almost nothing worked, so I blew that away and installed SuSe. This was much better and most things "worked". The problem was the peculiar UI - which for a touch screen was difficult to work with. Changing the UI on SLED was a problem and it felt a little too "locked down" for my liking. It became painful, so it had to go as well.
Ubuntu seemed to be about halfway there. Some of the special buttons would not work, but I could live without them. It fitted with my purposes at the time, so I was off and running with Ubuntu. It didn't take too long before I preferred it to Fedora.
One of the things I used to dislike about Ubuntu was the default Gnome interface - I preferred KDE. Yes, I know it's also the default for Fedora, but switching interfaces with Fedora was simple. For the Vaio, I chose to install Kubuntu; which at the time was the specific distro for Ubuntu users with KDE. Later I decided to switch back to Gnome (when Gnome updated)and that proved to be a superior experience. The ever present issue was always screen resolution - which never really "fit" the screen.
I persevered for a few years with the Vaio - mainly for it's 'wow' factor - until I bought a Asus Transformer T300 tablet with keyboard and after that I almost immediately stopped using the Vaio. Despite the tablet being far less powerful, in had a 10" screen and a real keyboard. To make the Vaio usable, I had to become "walking tech" by carrying around a folding keyboard, port replicator, external HDD and a wireless mouse - plus the charger. I ended up selling the Vaio to a colleague for $50.
I have come to the conclusion that I have way too much stuff. I need to simplify my life - basically because I simply can't find anything when I look for it. Oh, I eventually do find it... six months later when I'm looking for something else.
I've been in Melbourne for over 12 years now and I still have stuff in boxes. It can't be that important. In fact, I have one box that wasn't unpacked from the previous move. I'm still healing from the emotional scars from the move from Queensland, I certainly don't want to go through that again: 75 cubic metres of stuff loaded onto a truck in the middle of summer in Queensland. Drive 1700km, unload and then go straight to work.
I was almost postal.
I'm slowly organising my life back in boxes - permanent ones. I bought 50 sturdy plastic boxes from Ikea and aside from furniture, white/brown goods, kitchen stuff, clothing, books, toiletries and personal items; everything gets a box. Each box gets a lable and an inventory. I have a box called "cables" with every single cable I have; "Power" has double adapters, powerboards, lightbulbs, extension cords etc; "stationery"; "camping"; "games"; "components"; "hardware"; "gardening" etc. I also have crates for the garage for the messy stuff. In the process I am throwing out or giving away heaps of "stuff" that I really don't need.
Okay, so I probably won't get to the point where I can fit everything I own into a box trailer, however I figure that if I manage to get every single thing thing I don't use everyday into a box, then moving won't be as stressful next time and will be much, much cheaper - especially if I sell or give away the white and brown goods. I even dream of buying a 20ft container and storing these boxes in there. I mean, I don't use the stuff that often. Then when it comes time to move, well, the container is already half packed, I just fill it with furniture, kitchen stuff and books (I have a lot of books) and move the container.
A "Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit" or TEU is 39 cubic metres - that should about do it. You can buy one second hand for about AUD2000. They are cheap to move. Interstate in Australia for about AUD1500. That's about $39/cu m. My move to Melbourne cost $100/cu m. Internationally (door to door) for about AUD5000 or $128/cu m. It doesn't cost much more to move a 40ft container, however where do you put it is the ever present problem.
You know, if I could modify it with a bit of plumbing and electricity, I could probably make it livable and save on housing costs:
The Beast coming back from QLD during the move to Melbourne. We did
1600km in 23 hours. The temperature was 47C during this stop.
Alas! The venerable 1989 model Ford Maverick (rebadged Nissan Patrol) is no more. After 488,000 km (a decent number of them off-road) it could do no more. The number of expensive jobs on the to-do list kept increasing, and with the LPG tank now out of date (and condemned) it simply wasn't worth it. I sold it to a mechanic in Sunshine for $650, but not before I removed the dual battery system and the CB radio.
I knew the sale had to be to a mechanic - most of the work that needed to be done was labour intensive:
Front brake master cylinder frozen
Steering bushes needed replacing
Broken engine mount
LPG out of date
Fuel pump leaking oil
Carburettor overhaul required
High beam micro switch broken
Windscreen washer motors shorted and fused
To get all this done would cost me about $3k to make a 21YO vehicle roadworthy. It was a tough call as over the last two years I've spent close to $7k keeping it on the road. If I had known what it would cost, I wouldn't have started down that road. However, one of the things that still nags me is the prospect that if I did spent the $3k, then there really wouldn't be anything else to go wrong. The Beast would be like the axe my grandfather had for fifty years: He only had to replace the head twice and the handle three times.
Work done over the past couple of years includes:
New head (that was 3k alone)
Rear axle and diff rebuild (also very expensive)
Clutch master and slave cylinder replaced and relined. New clutch plate.
Complete overhaul of disk and drum brakes. New Master cylinder.
New radiator and several hoses replaced.
Installed new calcium battery with 850CCA (a very expensive battery)
Aircon re-gassed, hoses and compressor replaced.
Power steering hoses replaced.
Upgraded headlights from sealed to high luminance modular.
New muffler.
This is the Beast crossing Coca Cola Creek on the Cooloola Coast near Noosa
To keep the costs down I did as much work as I can. The problem with that is five of my hours are worth about one of my mechanics - and I simply don't have that much time. Also, sometimes it is counterproductive. For example, I tried to do the power steering myself and ended up doing damage because I misread the Hane's manual on how to overhaul the power steering.
This comes to why I called the Maverick "The Beast". Working on it is a religious experience - actually, it's a taste of hell. I'm sure if Dante were to to do a rewrite, there would be a special section of hell where people would be forced to carry out repairs on the Beast for eternity.
In fact, whilst some people dream about their cars, I used to have nightmares over mine. Even replacing the spark plugs was difficult (not all of them, just plugs 3 & 4). It used a whopping 7.8 litres of oil - just try finding an oil pan big enough. And reaching the oil filter? I swear, the engineers who designed that engine must assume that people have five joints in their arms and eyes on the ends of their fingertips. There's a mixture of metric and imperial bolts and nuts in place and lots of little plastic "screwlets" that cannot be replaced and love to break if you look at them wrong way. There are replacement pipes and hoses that do not fit unless you either bend them or move something else.
Driving the beast is also an experience. It is seriously underpowered and felt more like a truck than anything else. It had Auntie Jack steering (it'll rip yer bloody arms off). The synchromesh stank so double-shuffling and pumping the clutch became a way of life, however if you held revs at exactly 1800 at the right speed for the gear you wanted you could pop it into gear smoothly without any clutch at all. I drove it around for a week without a clutch that way. On a dirt road it drifted like a rally car. The more you loaded it up, the better it handled. Driving back from QLD with the trailer on I was 4 tonne all up. It handled beautifully unless I had to brake quickly.
Warrego Highway coming out of Toowoomba at the top of the Toowoomba Range
This lead to one of my big scares and highlights a big problem with vehicles with rear-wheel drum brakes. Coming down the Toowoomba range with the four tonne load, I thought second gear would be sufficient. I was wrong. Unknown to me, the heavy load had blown the diff seals and saturated the rear drums with diff fluid. This made the rear drums useless. The trailer also had no brakes. I had brake fade by the third corner and had no option but to ride it out until the half-way flat. With the engine screaming at over 80km/h in second I hit the flat and stood on the brakes. I managed to slow it down to about 30km/h before they failed and pulled on the hand brake - which on the Beast is connected to a fifth brake attached on the diff. The hand brake pulled me up just 30m short of the next descent - smoke was pouring out of the front disks pads, the discs were glowing red and I was shaking like a leaf.
The gearing of the beast was also poor. The huge ratio gap between second and third was such that driving uphill with any decent load meant you either were going too fast or too slow. Fuel consumption was close to 20L/100km - hence the need for LPG.
In fact, the Beast never really seemed to be happy unless you were off road with a heavy load. The diff lock was manual and on low range you could really do some wonderful things with it. Once I told some Japanese students I would take them on a 4WD track, so I took them up Mt Kooralbyn. However it had been over a year since I'd driven the track and it had not been maintained. Also (presumably) no one else had been up there in that time. I was white-knuckled all they way up (and down). There were three-foot deep cracks in the track big enough to claim a wheel. On the ridge, the grass had overgrown the track to a height of four-feet and a sapling had grown in the middle of it. The kids loved the drive; but it scared the crap out of me.
Trying to get through the 2008 floods in the Beast
I once went on a youth camp with the boys in a state park outside of Bacchus Marsh. It rained considerably during the camp and the windy dirt roads became considerably soggy on the way back. This brought the drift speed all the way down to 30km/h. After about the fifth corner with a 45 degree drift and an idiotic smile on my face, the kids started saying "Dad! Really! You're embarrassing us!"
After I moved to Melbourne, I took a load of rubbish to the tip, but took a wrong turn with only a few minutes before closing time. As a result I had to take the dirt service road to the tip entrance. It was a good (but windy) dirt road with no corrugations, so I took the corners at speed and used the full width of the road including the verge. Kylie was with me and after the first corner she said "Did you just slide around that corner?"
I replied "It's called drifting."
"Should you be drifting in a 4wd?"
"That's not a problem. A 4WD is really like any other vehicle. Same basic rules apply."
"Should you drifting with a trailer on the back?"
(pause) "Probably not." I replied, and backed off the speed a littlle.
The worst gaf I made with the Beast was on the Cooloola Coast. Coming back, I mistimed the tides and had to drive with two wheels on wet and two on dry sand for a while. I pulled over at a good wide stretch and waited for the tide to turn. When it did, I drove back, but forgot to release the hand brake. By the time I realised, the damage was done and the brake began to seize. Fortunately, I made it back to the bitumen where I cooled my heels for a few hours until the tow truck turned up.
The Beast has now been replaced by a shiny Honda Odyssey. A 4WD it is not (which is disappointing), however it will sit large teenagers in the back row in comfort - something the Beast won't do. It should also be cheaper to run and (hopefully) maintain. Now I have to work out what to do with the CB and the dual battery system. I also need to fit a tow bar.
At the very least I will no longer have to constantly steer in one direction whilst driving and then steer in the opposite direction when braking.
In searching through some old documents, I found this short story based on Warhammer that I wrote in the late '90's. Enjoy!
Note: The abhorrent Games Workshop spelling of “Brettonia” has not been used.
The Chanson of Bernard le Favor in Prose
Extracted and condensed from the 158 verses and 17 choruses of “Le Chanson de Bernard le Favor and the Songs of his Noble Valour” as composed by the Bard Julian le Troubador.
Bernard crashed through the swamp, stumbling as he ran, tears blinding his vision. Barely able to see, his thoughts were fixed on just one thing… to run, and get away from that battle as fast as possible! Against this single-minded goal impeded no other thought;not sustenance, time, direction, not care for himself, not even shame at his cowardice. Yet deep inside, gnawing at him, was his love for the Fay Enchantress.
Finally, Bernard’s strength exhausted him. He tumbled headlong over a log and down a small hill. There he lay, crying and cursing himself at his cowardice, unworthy of the title of Knight Errant. Faintly; the sounds of battle came to him, for he had not blundered that far. The clash of steel on steel, the twang of bows, the hum and discharge of potent magic! Technically he was still on the battlefield, though some distance behind enemy lines.
Resting for a moment, Bernard stifled his sobs, wiped away his tears and began to survey his situation: He was out of the swamp now, that much was good. He was without mount, and his unit had been destroyed. But it was when his beloved Duke, Folay, Duc de Parravon, fell in battle that his courage had left him. Bernard had run from the battle like a frightened child.
The might of the Lizardman army had amazed him. He had thought they would be weak. But the sheer power of the Slann-Mage Czantekel had stunned him. He had seen the power of the Empire battle wizards inaction, tempered by the Waagh of the Goblin shamans, been repulsed by the power of Chaos. But nothing… nothing had prepared him for sight of the white fire of High Magic as it incinerated a mighty unit of Grail Knights in lance formation. The mighty Slann-Mage then proceeded to deal a mortal blow to his beloved Duke, whilst at the same time casting down all the spells the Fay Enchantress could weave. He himself had been overwhelmed by the missile fire from salamanders and those pesky skinks with their deadly bows. One by one, the Knight Errants under his charge paid the ultimate price in defence of Mother Brettoni. After that, he had no courage for the fight.
Wistfully, he sat and held a token in his hands, he caressed the simple trinket lovingly and fought back more tears of remorse. The object he held - while worthless to others - was more priceless to him than life itself. He allowed this thought to grow in him and his fear turned into something else. Gaining a further resolve he pushed his anger deep within him. Standing slowly he took his sword in hand and tied around it the trinket he was carrying. It was a tress of hair, a gift to him from the Fay Enchantress of Brettonia.
He had broken his ban!
In truth he had not prepared himself properly. Bernard had allowed his pride to deceive him. For he was a Knight Errant Champion of Brettonia! And what is more, he had been granted a favour from the Fay Enchantress herself!
A snorting sound snatched Bernard from his thoughts. Spinning around, sword in hand, he was ready to fight! Out of the swamp, dripping in muck, trotted a Brettonian Warhorse. Despite its sad appearance it still held its head up high, a sure sign of the Elvenhorse blood that still pumped through its veins. Although its carapace was stained Bernard could still clearly make out the heraldry. This was the horse that recently bore the Duke of Parravon. Amazed at the courage of the Duke’s horse in seeking out another rider so that it could return to battle, Bernard wasted no time in mounting up. He had no Lance, his sword would have to do.
Listening for the sounds of battle, he spurred his new horse on. Around the swamp charged with a new sense of urgency. Still out of sight, Bernard could tell the battle was not going well for Brettonia, the sound of Brettonian archers had long faded. He feared for the Enchantress, that she might have been slain. The very thought appalled him and filled is heart with dread, but within burned a new resolve. He spurred his horse on to greater and greater speeds. Rounding the swamp, his heart leapt with joy, and then filled with dread.
Morgiana was still alive, but beleaguered. No knights now stood to defend her. Only a handful of mounted squires protected her from the Lizardmam Saurus warriors! Yet still she battled on, weaving her mystical incantations in magical combat with the Slann-Mage. Even imperilled herself, she always protected her troops whom she enveloped in a red vapour of protection which surrounded the Fay Enchantress.
Bernard could see the battle was hopeless. The Lizardmen were just too numerous, and the Slann-Mage’s magic was too powerful. He had heard that all their minds where magically linked as one brain and they acted individually as if their were dozens present. Yesterday he had scoffed at such notions, now he feared they might be true. His own situation was equally impossible. One Knight, against an entire army? Still, he could not desert the Fay Enchantress a second time, his honour would not allow it. He silently prayed that Morgiana’s favour still held, and that his cowardice had not broken it. She had promised him that as long as he was true and faithful to the Seven Commandments of Chivalry, fortune would smile upon him in battle. Armed with this thought, he raised his sword, turned and raced his warhorse towards the Slann-Mage.
A unit of skinks turned to face him, they fired their wicked barbs, but all failed to penetrate his knightly armour. He charged them with a mighty crash and 2 fell beneath his sword while his warhorse dispatched another. They fled, and Bernard ran them down and slaughtered them in their tracks. Racing across the battlefield he attracted the gaze of Morgiana le Fay. He saluted her as he charged towards the Slann-Mage, his horse answering the call to battle. Morgiana acknowledged him as he charged. She smiled at him, pleased to see him once more. No look of recrimination came from her, it was more relief that he was alive, and proud to see him return to the battle. Morgania cast her incantations as he rode and whispered softly, words which carried to him across the battle and echoed loudly in his ears.
“Sir Bernard! The Slann-Mage is doomed to perish by your sword!”
Bernard felt the words of power. Surprised at the responsibility with which the Fay Enchantress had entrusted him, he charged the Slann-Mage directly. The Slann-Mage too had felt the power and turned to face Bernard, fear and doubt emanating from the expressions of Saurus’ that bore him. Bolts of fire and energy threatened to sear his bones and rend the very fibres of his being. The Fay Enchantress threw them down, protecting him in his charge with scant regard to her own personal safety. Even as he watched, the hopelessly outnumbered Squires protecting her buckled under the immense onslaught of Saurus Temple Guards and gave way, leaving her open to attack!
The Slann-Mage renewed its magical attack on him. Shifting in his seat, his Brettonian Warhorse responded adroitly, carrying the weight of rider and armour with ease it dodged the bolt of white fire which incinerated a pursuing salamander!
The clouds parted. A shaft of light crossed the palm of the world with silver, coming to rest on the charging figure. The skinks and salamanders blanched, unable to bring their craven weapons to bear on such an imposing figure as a charging Knight of Brettonia in all his glory! For he no longer was Bernard, but Sir Bernard the Favoured and his charge was to slay the Slann-Mage or suffer Morgiana Le Fay to perish upon the battlefield. Bernard crashed into the Slann-Mage’s personal guards, forcing them back. Facing the Slann-Mage directly he raised his sword up high…and swung...
Bernard could not remember what happened next. At first he thought he had failed and died in his attempt. Regaining his strength he staggered upright and looked at the blackened earth which surrounded him. His faithful horse lay dead beside him, he himself was badly wounded. Before him lay the broken body of a once proud Slann-Mage.
Surveying the battefield, the Lizardman armies were in disarray. With no Slann-Mage to protect them, they were no match for Morgiana’s magical might. The mounted squires were putting down isolated pockets of resistance. A unit of archers had rallied and Brettonian bows were once again twanging into units of Lizardmen. Those that did not flee, either perished by the sword or were turned to frogs by Morgiana’s spiteful glance. By dusk, it was clear the battle belonged to Brettonia. The Slann had been taught to fear the thunder from the hooves of the Brettonian warhorse!
Morgiana entered the tent where Bernard’s wounds were being tended.
“Your Errand is at an end.” She announced simply. “The Lady of the Lake has bestowed her favours upon you today. You are now Sir Bernard le Favor, Knight of the Realm of Brettonia. It is customary at this time to bestow the Errand of Knighthood upon another, as you yourself were so appointed.”
Bernard swallowed hard, trying to clear his thoughts. “Send for the Captain of the Squires.” He commanded.
“He is dead.” came the reply from one of the attendants. “But there was one who stood beside the Enchantress when all others fled.”
“Send for him.” Commanded Bernard. Like it or not, he was the now in charge. The only knight to have survived.
The trembling squire entered the tent, protesting “I am not worthy of this honour. My knight is dead and many of my kindred slain, mine own captain I could not save.” He hung his head in shame.
At this juncture Morgiana intervened. “You are not to blame for their deaths. Rather your courage has given meaning to their sacrifice. You must further their honour by taking up the banner and providing purpose to their lives, and justification for their deaths. As long as you live faithful to the Code of Chivalry, they will forever be with you! It is the solemn duty of living to continue the work of the dead.”
The young squire knelt before Bernard. Bernard drew his sword and touched him lightly upon his shoulders with the flat of the blade. “In the name of the Lady of Lake, I bestow upon you the Errand of Knighthood, the right to wear armour and the right to ride a Brettonian warhorse. I bind upon you the Code of Chivalry with its Seven Commandments. I give unto you the responsibility of the defence of the realm, the protection of the innocent, and the relentless pursuit of the Holy Grail. May you one day sup from its holy contents. Amen. You may now rise Sir…”
Bernard paused, realising too late that he had forgotten to inquire of the young squire’s name. “Percival.” Finished the new knight. “Sir Percival.” Concluded Bernard.
Although young and trembling, Bernard caught a momentary glimpse of the future, of great deeds that this knight would perform. But then it was gone, which is well for such tales are the reserve of another long Chanson.
Outside it began to rain, but that was far from anyone’s mind. Now was a time of rebuilding, of remembering the dead, of accepting new responsibilities and burdens. No one spoke in that small tent, all preferred to sit in stunned silence. A silence broken only by the croaking of frogs in the rain.
Before reading further you need to ask yourself two questions:
1) Do I accept the scientific method?
2) Do I accept the Germ Theory of Disease?
If the answer to any of the above two questions is no, then you may as well stop reading now. There is simply nothing I can do for you if you are wilfully illiterate when it comes to science. I'm sorry, but ignorance of science is not an argument against it. Before having an opinion about science, you need to go back and revisit primary school science. Not high school - primary school.
If the answer is yes to both, then you will probably find the following to be quite obvious, so why am I writing all this down?
Good question.
The answer is that an argument unanswered continues to be argued. Even stupid, idiotic, completely brain dead arguments that anyone with a primary school understanding of science should be able to answer. So, here and now, all the asinine Coronavirus-denialist arguments I've come across will be thoroughly and completely debunked.
In short, if you accept the scientific method and the germ theory of disease, there is not a single scrap of evidence to support the politically motivated denialism that abounds.
So let's start with some background information before we take the deep dive into tinfoil hat hell.
Transmissibility and Exponential growth
Most people are pretty bad at understanding exponential growth. There's an old Chinese proverb about an Emperor asking his servant what he would like his reward to be. The servant replied "Just place one grain of rice on a chess square and double that for each squar on the board." The emperor agreed because he thought this was very cheap, however he found out that this would be more rice than all of China had, so instead he executed the servant.
Disease spreads according to the mathematical rules of exponential growth and decay. The speed of this growth or decay is called the exponent - or the 'R' factor. For steady state growth, R=1. For exponential growth, R>1 and for exponential decay R<1.
The base rate for a virus is known as the R0. This can and is modified by external factors. Some of these factors are common to most viruses, others are peculiar to a few.
Any virus with a R<1 will not propagate. It will simply die out of its own accord.
Virus with a very high value of R will propagate extremely quickly. Measles, for example, has an R0=16.
The following video is an excellent explanation of how exponential growth occurs:
Rather than explain further, I'm going to assume that you've either watched the video, or you have a grasp of exponential growth and decay.
Mortality Rate
For just about any disease, the mortality rate is highly variable. When a rate is presented, this is the overall mortality rate. In other words, how many people die as opposed to those who recover as a percentage. However for individual cases, this is affected by a huge number of factors:
- the age and overall health of the patient
- access to health care and ICU
- comorbid conditions
- weather
- treatments
Sometimes these can be counter-intuitive, for example, the H1N1 Spanish Influenza had a higher mortality rate with young, fit people.
Incubation Period
This is how long from the time you are infected with a virus before you begin to show symptoms. For many diseases, you can be infectious to others during this period of time.
Debilitating Conditions
Sometimes, not dying of a disease is not a completely successful outcome. A person may have permanent disability as a result of the disease or their life expectancy may be reduced. A text book example of this is polio which, although it didn't have a high mortality rate, it left numberless people crippled for life, some surviving only via living in an iron lung.
Putting it Together
The graph below plots mortality against transmissibility (R0) for various diseases compared to COVID-19.
Since this graph was made, COVID-19 has been established to have an R0=2.4.
What is COVID-19
COVID-19 or SARS-COV-2
is a novel (meaning new to our immune systems) RNA virus from the
coronavirus family. They are named simply because of their shape, not
all coronaviruses are related.
Three types of coronavirus
are associated with what we refer to as the "common cold". They are
usually mild and almost never fatal. They tend not to mutate very much,
in fact mutations tend to die out very quickly.
Two types of coronavirus are extremely deadly. These are known as SARS and MERS. Fortunately, both of these viruses have a relatively low R0 and were contained locally.
So enough background material, now to the pseudoscientific claims...
"It's just a flu"
Influenza is a family of viruses that are closely related. They are two major divisions: Influenza 'A' and Influenza 'B'. The B types are usually mild flus by can also be the dreaded '24 hour' flu. The A types are more common and are in turn classified by HnNk classification system. These are the bad seasonal flus that usually have a low but significant mortality rate in the order of 0.1%.
The flu is considered seasonal because of its low R0 of 1.4. Warm weather, reduced physical content and improved immune systems in summer reduce the R0 to below 1.
Influenza 'A' is an amazingly adaptable virus. It exists in birds, pigs and humans and jumps back and forwards between species. This is why flu types are also named by the species they originate from.
Our bodies know the flu pretty well. Even with changes to its genome, we're pretty good at creating antibodies for it within a short period of time. When we catch the flu, we often get over it in a week or two.
COVID-19 is a novel virus. Our bodies haven't seen it before and it takes time to adapt. Most people take a minimum of 3 - 4 weeks to recover from it. Also, the mortality rate is much, much higher than the seasonal flu.
The second factor is that for some reason we don't understand yet, nearly 80% of people are asymptomatic carriers. The majority of these are those younger than 50. The mortality rate for those over 70 is over 20%. This means people can be carrying and spreading the disease without knowing it.
"The death rate isn't that high"
To calculate the death rate, you look at the number of people that have died against those who have recovered, not the number of people that still have the disease. When you do that, you get a figure between 1% and 10%.
Part of that reason is the amount of testing that is done. Some areas don't test asymptomatic people, so that will tend to inflate the death rate. Other areas test everybody, which tends to lower the apparent death rate, so you need to look at the positive rate for comparison. Some locations - like Italy - have aging populations which bump up their rate a little.
All testing methodologies have both a small false positive and false negative rate. When the case load is high, this false positives and negatives become statistically negligible. However when there are very few instances of the disease, they can max out the statistics. There is a statistical method called Bayes' Theorem that is used to account for and correct these anomalies. As an aside note, I have used Bayes' Theorem in my work in developing ways of identifying spam emails. It's an extremely useful and highly accurate statistical tool.
First world health care is also very good at reducing mortality - as long as the system is not overloaded. The European (and potentially the American) experience has shown that when the health system is overloaded and ICU beds are not available, the mortality rate rises dramatically. But this is not all, if the health system is overloaded and you have a life threatening medical emergency such as a heart attack or car accident, an ambulance may not be available, or there may be no ICU beds or surgeons to treat you and you may die as result. Your death won't be recorded as a COVID-19 death, but you'll die nonetheless.
UPDATE: 26 Aug 2021
I was recently challenged on the death rate with the claim that the mortality had dropped to less than 0.1%. So I crunched the numbers again, this time differentiating between the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and the Case Fatality Rate (CFR). I've pasted a screenshot of the spreadsheet here.
Consistently, the fatality rate is between 1% and 9%, with the majority between 1 and 3%. The list of reasons for variation between countries is too long to go into in this snippet, but there are a few standouts. When a country's health system is overwhelmed, that's when the death rate tends to shoot up - when no ICU beds are available. Countries with Universal Health Care tend to do better than countries that don't. Third-world countries tend to do worse.
Israel's figures also show an interesting trend. One of the few countries that is mostly vaccinated, the majority of cases are amongst the vaccinate, but nearly all the sever cases are amongst the unvaccinated. So while vaccination may not prevent you from getting COVID, it will prevent you from having a serious case.
The data on Israel is very early, however, and it does seem to indicate that protection falls off quicker than expected. Those vaccinated in January are over represented in the number of cases, so a booster shot at six months might be required rather than waiting twelve months as is typical.
"It's not that bad"
For nearly 80% of people, it's not bad at all - in fact, most don't even know they have it. This is called "survivor bias". A moderate number have mild symptoms, but a significant number have severe symptoms. Now "severe' means hospitalisation. When was the last time you were hospitalised for the flu? Never?
If you are hospitalised for coronavirus, you are very sick. You may need intubation - something very unpleasant. You will most likely carry some form of permanent impairment - reduced lung capacity, heart or liver damage. You may never be able to physically exert yourself ever again. You may have your life expectancy reduced by ten years. You may live the rest of your life in chronic pain.
But then again, you may be one of the 80%. Do you want to take that gamble?
"Masks don't work"
There are three types of masks to consider:
- surgical masks
- N95 & KN95 masks
- cloth masks
Surgical masks are designed to protect the 'other person' and not yourself. If you have coronavirus, wearing a surgical mask reduces transmissibility by 75%. So, its a bit like having third party insurance. If everybody has it, everybody is protected. However testing has shown surgical masks do offer some level of protection to you in the order of 5% - so they aren't ineffective.
N95/KN95 masks are designed to protect you. They are more expensive and must be fitted with a tight seal to be fully effective. The '95' means that 95% of particles of 3 microns or larger are filtered out. COVID-19 is between 2 & 3 microns in size. This doesn't mean the masks don't work, just that they don't filter out 95%. Testing has shown the mask filters approximately 60% of COVID-19 viruses.
Cloth masks are less effective than either surgical or N95 masks. Properly made, they will filter up to 50% of COVID-19 viruses. To be properly made, they must have three layers, with the innermost layer made of cotton, and the inner layer made of polypropylene. They should be washed regularly.
"Masks build up CO2"
No, they don't. This argument is absurd and extremely easy to test.
Put on a mask and put your finger in an O2 optical measurement device. Several doctors have demonstrated that even wearing multiple masks does not reduce Oxygen saturation. If this was a problem, surgeons would have been dropping dead like flies for years now.
"America's Frontline Doctors" (added 30 July)
Where to to start with this one? The TLDR is this video is one of the biggest deliberate frauds/hoaxes I've ever seen.
In this viral video, you see a doctor standing in front of the US Supreme Court steps claiming
that “you don’t need masks” because “there is a cure” for the
coronavirus.
The speaker, Stella Immanuel, says that she is a doctor and that she
practiced in Nigeria. That much checks out: a person of that name does have a medical licence on file with the state of Texas, and the licence states that she got her medical degree from a university in Nigeria.
She
says that she has treated 350 patients with COVID-19, given them all a
regimen of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and the antibiotic Zithromax, and
that none have died. We don’t have any way of judging whether this is
true; she hasn’t released any data that lifehacker has been abled to find.
“You don’t need masks,” she says. This is wrong; masks are imperfect but extremely helpful in protecting us from giving the coronavirus to each other.
Immanuel claims that a paper about hiccups “proves” that the NIH knows hydroxychloroquine “cures” COVID-19. But the paper
is no proof of a cure. It states that a patient had hiccups and was
positive for COVID-19, and that the patient felt well enough to be
released from the hospital a few days later. The authors’ conclusion is
that doctors should consider COVID-19 as a possible diagnosis for
patients with hiccups or with other unusual symptoms. Yes, the patient
was treated with hydroxychloroquine while in the hospital, but from this
paper we can’t say if that actually helped or if he would have done
just as well without it.
The truth is that hydroxychloroquine has been used a lot in the last few months. The first trials that put it in the news had serious flaws,
but doctors around the world often chose to give it a try. It’s
(normally) an easily available drug, with known side effects that are
often mild to manageable. Immanuel says she used it to treat malaria in
Nigeria, and it’s true that the drug is commonly used for this. Its use
for malaria and for other conditions like lupus is why the drug is so
widely available and its side effects well known.
On her social media profiles, Stella Immanuel has shared other misinformation, including a claim
that the coronavirus vaccine “will fuse with your own genes and modify
your genetic makeup,” which is not a thing any of the vaccines in
development are designed nor, as far as anyone knows, remotely able to
do. The Daily Beast has more on her past statements about health, including the idea that gynecological problems are caused by having sex in one’s dreams with demons. She also claims that scientists are developing a vaccine to make you an atheist and modern medical treatments contain alien DNA. And if you look at her twitter feed, you can see she isn't exactly playing with a full deck.
There's something to be said for taking a job lot. If someone's obviously crazy with some things, that tends to dilute what they have to say about others - no matter what their level of conviction. In fact, ESPECIALLY if they are heavily convicted. At the very least, skepticism of what they say should be very high.
She claims masks are unnecessary and she and all her medical staff take
Hydroxychloroquine to prevent COVID-19, but she wears a mask in her
videos promoting her Fire Power Ministry -- just not when she's trying
to influence public health policy. Among her Fire Power Ministry
services are conversion therapy and removing generational curses from
your placenta.
When you search for her clinic, it shows her religious gift shop in a
strip mall. In her posts and videos, she Photoshops her clinic sign
over the actual sign next door. She "runs" another clinic in Katy, TX
out of an aged care home but again the sign says it's her ministry.
Each
doctor in the video is wearing a white coat with an "America's Frontline
Doctors" logo. They are organized by the "Tea Party Patriots". AFD's
site was created right before the video, on July 16, less than two weeks
ago, so Breitbart could say, "We're here with America's frontline
doctors." Not exactly an established group. The AFD site runs out of
that strip mall. The listed phone number leads to a website called
"Southern Flare [sic] Urgent Care" with another photoshopped clinic
encouraging anyone with COVID to pay for virtual treatment.
Incidentally, their website (hosted at squarespace) has already expired.
In
the video, she says she's saving the lives of patients who are about to
die from COVID-19. On her page, she says she accepts patients with mild
cases.
She set up a GoFundMe for any future legal issues she may have.
Dr. Simone Gold, with America's Frontline Doctors, claimed to be
affiliated with Centinela Hospital (they have confirmed she is not a
current staff member), and inferred she was affiliated with Cedars-Sinai
ER -- who has clarified that she is not.
Dr. Gold has 4 reviews, at least one of which was made today and simply thanks her for being so "brave" in the video.
Dr. Jeff Barke is a QAnon conspiracy theorist who was busted in a drug
sting. He is affiliated with an online school that was recently sued
for fraud and was under investigation for preying on seniors. He's a
member of a group that funds Republican candidates, and the Orange
County Republican Central Committee. He said COVID-19 is no more
dangerous than the flu, when US flu deaths are at 34,000/year and US
COVID-19 deaths are at 150,000.
Dr. Barke founded a religious
charter school using right-wing curriculum developed by Betsy
DeVos-linked Hillsdale College. A charter school PAC gave his wife's
campaign $245,000.
In short - can you possibly not consider this video as anything more than an elaborate fraud designed to push misinformation?
The fact that this "news conference" had more speakers than
attendees was of little matter. Livestreamed by the far-right website
Breitbart News, the video spread quickly, initially through
conservative, anti-vaccination and government conspiracy groups. Within
hours, it had reached over 20 million Facebook users.
As previously mentioned, the event
was hosted and funded by the Tea Party Patriots, led by Jenny Beth Martin, the group's co-founder, who
spoke at the news conference.
Tea Party Patriots have been critical of measures enacted to slow the
spread of the coronavirus. Before America's Frontline Doctors, the
group launched the Second Opinion Project, a website that hosted videos
of doctors attacking state and local coronavirus efforts.
Videos
from supposed experts bucking public health consensus have been a
recurring brand of misinformation during the pandemic. In April, viral videos
were eventually removed from Facebook and YouTube of two doctors in
Bakersfield, California, downplaying the risk of the coronavirus and
spreading a conspiracy theory about doctors purposefully misattributing
unrelated deaths to the coronavirus. Dan Erickson, one of the two
doctors in the clip, spoke at Monday's news conference.
In May, a "Plandemic" video
from a discredited scientist promoting conspiracy theories about the
coronavirus and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases, drew 8 million views before it was
removed.
Whatever happens to the video, the myths in it will continue to
circulate because they are attractive. It tells us, falsely, that masks
are unneeded, that lockdowns are unnecessary, and that there is a
surefire cure for COVID-19 that the government is covering up. This is
all clearly, obviously false, and these myths were circulating long
before this specific video. They’re still as wrong as ever.
To believe this, you have to ignore all the evidence and believe in a global conspiracy involving all the doctors and nurses in the world conspiring to ... achieve what exactly?
If you accept this, then I'm afraid you are a candidate for mental health intervention.
Delta Update (17th/18th August 2021)
The new Delta strain, which originated in India has completely changed the game for coronavirus. At first, it was estimated that the delta strain had an R0=5. Now, the estimates are for an R0=9!!!
That is insanely high. The only other virus I'm aware of with that high an R0 is the measles. Assuming that vaccines confer 90% immunity, then in reality we need 98.7% of people vaccinated for herd immunity. That is never going to happen.
There are two possibilities: a third shot as a booster to increase immunity beyond 90%, or a mixture of vaccinated and naturally immune (through catching and recovering from COVID.
We also have some sobering data from Israel - which has a nearly fully vaccinated population. Because of their high vaccination rates, Israel has opened up pretty much completely. But now that the Delta strain has hit, cases are rising dramatically - even amongst the vaccinated. In fact, particularly amonsgt the vaccinated.
If the data from Israel is correct, those vaccinated in January have an immunity below 50%. Those since January have a much higher level of immunity.
Now, this could be a limitation of the Pfizer vaccine. There's no evidence the other vaccines have this level of reduced immunity to Delta, however, we don't know.
The other side is that although most of the infected have been vaccinated, most of the serious cases are amongst the unvaccinated and nearly all of the ICU cases are unvaccinated. So, the Israeli approach is "Meh. We'll stay open."
The rationale being that although the vaccine's effectiveness in preventing infections has dropped, it's effectiveness in reducing the symptoms and the severity of COVID-19 is still close to 100%. Some may argue this is a better outcome as the mild infection will now confer close to 100% of future infections, but this remains to be seen. We simply don't have enough data yet.
That's probably enough for now. I know this is a little snarky, but I'll only suffer fools for so long. I'll add more as I'm reminded of more 'objections' and source it up better. I still have to write up why social distancing and quarantining are important measures, but I'll finish up with an explanation of Aatish Bhatia's COVID-19 excellent data analysis.
